by Jack Magruder in College Football

No. 22 Penn State (2-0) is a 3-point road favorite against Auburn at 3:30 pm ET Saturday, September 17 on CBS. The Nittany Lions beat Auburn 28-20 in the first of a home-and-home set in Happy Valley last season as a 4-point favorite.

Auburn (2-0) has lost its last three games and four of its last five as a home underdog, going 1-4 ATS. The Tigers’ only win and cover came in a 48-45 Iron Bowl victory over Alabama on Nov. 30, 2019, a win that eliminated the Crimson Tide from the CFP playoff.

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The public paid attention to past performance in betting the line down from the opening total of 49. Four of Auburn’s last five games have gone under the total, and six of Penn State’s last nine have been under.

A week after sixth-year senior Sean Clifford led Penn State’s last-minute comeback to beat Purdue 35-31 in Week 1, true freshman running back Nick Singleton rushed for 179 yards and touchdowns of 70 and 44 yards in the Nittany Lions’ 46-10 victory over Ohio last Saturday,

Get to know the name, B1G fans: Nick Singleton.

The freshman RB goes 70 yards for his first career TD. 🏃‍♂️💨@NickSingletonn x @PennStateFball pic.twitter.com/h7rqFoTLqJ

— Big Ten Network (@BigTenNetwork) September 10, 2022

Both are encouraging signs if the Nittany Lions are to contend in the Big Ten East. Clifford has been up-and-down in a lengthy career sidetracked by the occasional injury, and Singleton became Penn State’s first 100-yard rusher since Keyvone Lee had 134 yards against Michigan on Nov. 28, 2020.

Penn State averaged only 3.3 yards per carry in 2021, 115th in the FBS, and has not had a 1,000-yard season rusher since Miles Sanders in 2018. The average per carry this season is 5.03  in the small two-game sample size.

Last season, Sean Clifford had one of his most accurate games as a Penn State QB vs Auburn. The 1 INT was a jump ball before halftime.

He completed 87.5% of his passes in that game.

Penn State will need Sean to have this kind of efficiency against Auburn this weekend. 🦁 pic.twitter.com/dsIN9tDAvI

— The Basic Blues Podcast (@BasicBluesPod) September 13, 2022

Nittany Lions’ freshman quarterback Drew Allar completed six of eight passes for 88 yards and two touchdowns while spelling Clifford early in the third and fourth quarters against Ohio. Don’t read anything into that, coach James Franklin said, adding that he had planned to play both.

The Tigers have used a strong running game led by Tank Bigsby in victories over Mercer and San Jose State, the two softest touches on a schedule that gets appreciably more difficult when Penn State visits. The Tigers play the most challenging schedule in the FBS, according to the NCAAF strength of schedule rankings.

Bigsby has rushed for 198 yards and three touchdowns and Jarquez Hunter has four rushing touchdowns in coach Bryan Harsin’s run-first approach. Quarterback TJ Finley, who owns the job after Bo Nix’s transfer, has regressed early — 270 passing yards, three interceptions, one touchdown.

Auburn RB Tank Bigsby is a tough one to catch 😳 pic.twitter.com/prRrQ0UKxV

— NFL Rookie Watch (@NFLRookieWatxh) September 5, 2022

Backup quarterback Robby Ashford platooned with Finley last week and will be an early option if the Tigers stall. Ashford, more a runner, threw a 1-yard completion and one interception but also rushed for 61 yards.

Both teams were 2-0 when they met in the third game of the season in Happy Valley a year, when the Nittany Lions came away with a 28-20 victory as a 4-point favorite.

Clifford threw for 280 yards and two touchdowns, and Bigsby rushed for 102 yards rushing and two touchdowns. The game was not decided until Penn State batted down Bo Nix’s pass into the end zone as time expired.

Harsin survived an internal review of his program after the Tigers lost the final games last season amid player criticism after his initial season, but that only served to intensify the pressure they face in 2022. Penn State has improved since beating Auburn a year ago, Auburn has not, and the venue should have little bearing. The Tigers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven and 1-4 ATS in their last five at home, and there is no reason to buck that trend here.

The pick: Penn State -3 (-112)

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Jack has covered college and professional sports for various Arizona media outlets since the 1980s and has written for the Associated Press, USA Today and Baseball America, among others. He staffed the 2015-17 World Series and has staffed four Super Bowls.

Jack has covered college and professional sports for various Arizona media outlets since the 1980s and has written for the Associated Press, USA Today and Baseball America, among others. He staffed the 2015-17 World Series and has staffed four Super Bowls.

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