By James Hicks | December 25, 2021 at 9:52am CDT
Coming off a 2021 season that saw them run away with the NL Central behind a stable of controllable arms that put up high-end numbers for salaries that fell well below market value, the Brewers’ pitching staff is among the great envies of Major League Baseball. While many of their salaries will rise through arbitration in 2022 – Brandon Woodruff and Josh Hader are each slated for hefty raises – no decision facing Brewers GM Matt Arnold will have a greater bearing on the club’s future than his approach to reigning NL Cy Young Award Winner Corbin Burnes.
After pitching last season for a relatively piddly $608K, MLBTR’s Matt Swartz has Burnes slated for an even $4MM salary in 2022, his first year of arbitration eligibility, should he and the Brewers choose to go that route. While it clearly won’t come cheap, Arnold and the Brewers will at least want to kick the tires on a possible extension with their ace. With dollars flying around at an unprecedented rate before the lockout, though, what such an extension might look like remains an open question. Should the Brewers follow the arbitration path for the duration of Burnes’ eligibility, he’d become a free agent following his age-29 season in 2024.
While pinpointing a length or dollar-figure would be pure guesswork, we can safely say that a Burnes extension won’t come cheap. Burnes’ stellar 2021 didn’t come out of nowhere, exactly, but few would have predicted the dominance he displayed, particularly given that he had cracked top-prospect lists only shortly before his 2018 debut and entered 2021 with just 13 lifetime big-league starts. He’d also fallen on his face in a rotation stint to open the 2019 season, allowing 11 homers across three outings, and performed only marginally better out of the bullpen (7.76 ERA in 28 relief appearances, 10.70 in four starts).
Burnes’ huge step forward in 2020 came largely as the result of a plummeting home run rate (from 7.2% in 2019 to a miniscule 0.8% in 2020). In 2021, he nearly maintained the same low home run rate (1.1%) while cutting his walk rate almost in half to the lowest mark in the NL (from 10% in 2020 to 5.2% in 2021), while his home-run rate, K-rate (35.6%), K/BB ratio (6.88), and FIP (1.63) all led the majors among qualified starters. He also won the big-league ERA title with a 2.43 mark in 167 innings.
Given the relative scarcity of pitchers of Burnes’ caliber at this point in their careers, comparisons are scant. The White Sox gave Chris Sale $32MM over five years ahead of the 2013 season, but he was still a year from arbitration and only had one year as a starter—and no Cy Youngs—under his belt at the time. The seven years and $175MM the Nationals gave Stephen Strasburg in May 2016—which also included an opt-out clause he wound up using—came only a few months ahead of Strasburg reaching free agency (albeit with a Tommy John surgery on file). Similarly, Jacob deGrom’s five-year, $137.5MM whopper came just ahead of his final arb-year. (On one hand, deGrom was 31 in 2019, significantly older than Burnes, but is also in a class of his own.)
Perhaps a better comp is Aaron Nola’s four year, $45MM pact (also with a club option) with the Phillies in 2019, which came at the same point in his arbitration cycle, though the comparison is far from perfect. While Nola was at the time a year younger than Burnes is now and had a longer track record as an effective big-league starter, he’d never reached (and hasn’t since) quite the heights Burnes has over the last two seasons. The closest comparison, then, is likely the $50MM over five years the Rays gave to Blake Snell following his dominant 2018 Cy Young season. That backloaded deal, which came a year ahead of Snell’s arbitration eligibility, followed a breakout campaign on the heels of strong but not spectacular performances in the two years prior.
The Brewers will likely be more than willing to give Burnes (and his dominant cutter) quite a bit more in the ways of both years and dollars than the Phillies gave Nola or the Rays gave Snell, perhaps inching him a bit closer to Strasburg and deGrom. They should also have money to spend; the eight-figure salaries of Avisail Garcia (signed with the Marlins) and Jackie Bradley Jr. (traded to the Red Sox) have both come off their books, while Lorenzo Cain’s will do the same after he plays out his $18MM guarantee in 2022. They’ll remain on the hook for $26MM/year to Christian Yelich through 2028, but they otherwise have no salary commitments in 2023 beyond $3.735MM to starter Freddy Peralta and a $2MM buyout to second baseman Kolten Wong.
They will, of course, also want to augment a lineup that lagged well behind the rotation in overall production, but figuring out the plan with their rotation anchor is certain to be their first priority. Something in the neighborhood of a five- or six-year guarantee that pushes the nine-figure mark – perhaps also including performance escalators and/or a high-dollar club option or two – might be enough to satisfy club and player, guaranteeing the Brewers cost certainty and control of their franchise player beyond his arbitration years and Burnes significant financial security.
With the small-market Brewers in the middle of a contention window and Burnes’ rotation-mates Woodruff and Peralta under club control through 2024 and 2026, respectively, Brewers fans can likely count on the same sort of high-end starting pitching that propelled the 2021 club for at least a few more years regardless of Burnes’ contract status. Lefty Eric Lauer and late-bloomer Adrian Houser will likely return to round out the rotation in 2022, each in his first of arb-eligibility, granting the club an enviable expectation of consistency in the rotation. Graduating prospect Aaron Ashby, who pitched to a 4.55 ERA in 31 2/3 innings in 2021, may also push for a spot in rotation, though Craig Counsell may choose to keep him in the bullpen (or stash him in AAA) until his services as a starter are required.
While the small-market Brewers will likely have to dole out a bit more in the way of years and dollars than they’d like to keep their ace around in the long term, it may just be a risk they have to take. If Burnes can stay healthy and duplicate his recent dominance into his early 30s, the club would at minimum have the sort of top-of-the-rotation workhorse that perennial playoff teams rely on to reach the tournament year after year. And if Burnes preserves anything like his form over the last two seasons over the long haul, it would be a risk they’re glad they took.
Corbin Burnes Milwaukee Brewers MLBTR Originals
I like like Corbin Burnes, but he’s a product of todays management of having the SP go through the lineup 2 times and over so many pitches. It’s very effective and he’s one of the best at what he does. I just don’t know if workhorse is the right way of describing him though, but maybe under todays type of SP he would fall under that category.
He averaged 6 innings per start in 2021. That’s not too bad.
Ghost of Warren Spahn “Six innings? Wow. Golly gee whiz”.
Yea it’s sad how starting pitchers are being pampered….all about these big contracts…blown out elbows….funny when I was a kid in the 60s..there wasn’t many arm injuries as today….and those pitchers were studs…
Ghost, as a Sox fan, only two pitchers’ injuries stand out to me from the late 60 through the eighties. There had to be more but only starter Ray Culp and closer Bill Campbell come to mind with respect to significant injuries to a pitcher that was depended on.
Just about everybody throws 95+ these days, and there are very few easy outs in any lineup, which are two huge changes compared to the ’60s. Those are two factors that make every pitch and overall pitching more challenging these days.
Here’s another big reason with arm and shoulder and elbow issues…. PARENTS….they want to take their 12-13 year old kid ….wanting them to throw curves and change ups etc . …those kids bodies and bones are mature….too much strain and stress
I understand what you’re saying, however in this age you almost have to define a “workhorse” for what it is, too- and today Burnes would be one. There were only 4 guys to toss 200 innings + last season. I feel like with pitching injuries, the new bar is can you take the ball when it’s your turn; and Burnes took it 28 times. The league leaders took it 32.
And they walked 10 miles to the ballpark for every game…..uphill, in both directions too
I think Burnes won’t be that good after this season. I know all the stats say hes good but I’ve watched him and he doesn’t remind me of guys like Degrom, Wainwright, or Cole. Just seems like he got lucky going through the order once or twice over 5-6 innings
That’s an awful high bar. Those guys are -or in Wainwright’s case, were- aces. The hard truth is there aren’t enough true aces for everyone to get one. A pitcher can be a strong #1 without being a true ace.
To call what he did “luck” is a little silly, though. You don’t get lucky 28 times.
He averaged 6 innings a start and had a 1.63 FIP, 2.30 xFIP, and an xERA of 2.00. His BABIP against was .309.
One could argue he actually had unlucky results as opposed to getting lucky “going through the order once or twice” when he actually typically went through the order 3 times per start.
And his cutter is a top 5 pitch in baseball. Threw it 52% of the time and had an xBA of .198 with it.
Corbin Burnes walked nobody and struck out everybody. Hes an Ace going forward for me. The Brewers are contenders as long as these guys stay healthy.
Not trying to hurt the Brewer loyal here. But definitely thinking Burnes is going to hit free agency. If Milwaukee trades him they will get a King’s ransom back.
My guess is the Brewers FO will trade Burnes after the ‘22 or ‘23 season, and do the same with Woodruff, receiving their eventual replacements in those trades, plus more.
This team has the deepest, best, experienced, prime-aged starting staff in the game, and it’s not close. They likely have 1 more year of Woodruff-Burnes-Peralta before they start a Rays/Guardians replacement strategy.
I believe the team will stay with the 6-man rotation for at least as long as it keeps their incredible starters strong & healthy, so that means Aaron Ashby as the teams 6th starter and Ethan Small as starter #7.
If this team can continue to get good health out of their starters, get a better performance from Yelich next season and with a full season of Adames, an improved offense over’21, it could end up winning their first ever WS.
@Yankee fan. I really doubt anyone thinks you’re being unfair or even unkind. Brewers fans that have been one for any length of time understand the plight of Brewer fandom. I feel for the Brewers fans having to hold their breath over this. If the Brewers don’t end up extending him and he does anything even close to what he did last season, the only way the Brewers aren’t priced out is if he gives Milwaukee a home town discount.
Hey Metsin7, Throwing a 97 mph cutter isn’t luck. I’ll take a healthy Burnes over an oft injured deGrom, or Cole who’s a high priced no show in the postseason. Your team is an embarrassment to the game. All the money in the world to spend and year after year futility. 1986 is in the far distant past. BTW, why the hell did you throw in 40 year old Wainwright? Dum
Degrom isn’t oft-injured, neophyte. He was injured just last year. That’s it. He’s missed games one season since 2014 before last year. Use your words better.
And you’re an embarrassment. This displays your low IQ status within baseball as burnes was injured too last year and missed 4-5 starts. Don’t talk poop until you learn better
Lou holtz..stick to being a dead football coach…degrom is never injured..except for this year.. .if you going to be a troll…be one who knows what he’s talking about….whatsa matter…you get crap in your stocking?
Woah. Gerrit Cole pitched the Astros to a near title in ‘19. AJ Hinch refusing to put him in game 7 was unforgivable. A couple bad postseasons with the yankees and hes a no-show?
Wow one bad postseason WC start! So terrible…
His numbers before 2020 and 2021 werent very good. I can see him reverting to his old ways next season
Came up midway through 2018 – pitched very well out of the pen. He had a very poor 2019. He was as good as anyone in 2020 and 2021. That’s one bad year out of three and one half. I would say he figured it out. He may drop off some, but reverting to his old ways makes it sound like he was mediocre or worse for an extended period of time.
Oft-injured? Do you pay attention to baseball? And yes 86 was a long time ago. I still don’t see a time in Milwaukee history when the Brewers have ever reached the level of success the Mets have, even within the last 6 years. If anything that should be embarrassing. And I was pulling for them in the post season
He would rightfully cost a fortune. I’m not sure there is a comp out there given the circumstances.
The Brew Crew has to have the best rotation in baseball, right? Last year, they had 6 pitchers with at least 20 starts and an ERA+ of 101. 5 of them had an ERA+ of 130 or higher.
Burnes Woodruff and Peralta are filthy and young.
The Crew has an amazing staff and bullpen arms to close out games. Just wish they had the dough for O. All I want for Xmas is the old Yelich and perfected back surgery for all in need. Quite a big ask
The brewers are not good. Keep dreaming.
The Brewers won 95 games in ’21 and the Mets won 77 games. So if the Brewers aren’t good, what does that make the Mets when they finished 18 games behind them?
I didn’t mention the Mets but they were trash last year. I never said Mets were better. I’m just talking smack to this neophyte. Thanks though
“..just talking smack to this neophyte.”
Okay, but you’re still wrong. Winning 95 games is..you know..good. At worst they can say they were one of the top 5 teams in the National League. That means they are better than 2/3 of the NL at least. Being in the top third means you are better than average at worst.
4 playoff appearances in a row with the reigning Cy Young and a MVP winner say this comment is stupid.
Brewers starting pitching looking really good for the next 2-3 years. I don’t see Hader getting traded either he is too much of a asset with the way starting pitching rarely go 7-8 innings anymore.
That Yelich contract looks terrible, but it’s hard to believe that someone so incredibly good in 2018/19 could be so mediocre in 20/21. He’s got to have a bit of a comeback in him.
If his back recovers, sure. If not, he’ll be a solid OBP guy with average power. In other words, replacement-level but not worth $26 million-a-year to a mid-market team.
Back injuries can ruin careers. Plenty of people saw this as a possibility when that extension was signed. That said, I hope he can come back strong, he’s fun to watch.
Merry Xmas everyone. Glad to see we’re all riled up now! I had to get the party started. Cole was banged up, be nice to see a healthy deGrom this year. Love watching him pitch. As much as I loathe the Cardinals, good for the game that Wano and Yadi can ride off into the sunset together
I know the rest of Phillies fans will disagree, but this dude was easily the best starter in the NL last year. that said, I think last year was a high water mark. He should certainly be a pretty good pitcher going forward, but extending off such a high point unless the player sells themself short is foolish.
@ DarkSide830 Burnes has the nastiest arsenal, outside of DeGrom, of any starter in baseball. It’s not just his cutter, but his CB is also one of the best pitches in baseball. He also has a plus 2-seam FB, a plus CH, and a plus SL he rarely throws because he doesn’t need to. Then add in plus command to top it all off. He should perennially contend for the CY as long as he remains healthy.
I dunno. The injuries concern me and I get a feeling of volatility from him. i may be wrong, granted, but it just feels a little early to assume he’ll either be dominant or a train wreck.
@ DarkSide830 Burnes has never had an arm injury. Last year he missed 2-3 starts with Covid and in ‘20 missed the postseason with an Oblique injury.
He’s worth Nola money, but Nola isn’t worth Nola money!!
Even if the things you say happen, I think last year is still probably his peak. 7.5 fWAR is a REALLY good season. You can be a perennial cy young contender and never reach that mark again.
I’d lock up Burnes, Woodruff and Hader ASAP if I was the brewers owner – all 3 unique talents this is a no brainer!
Just imagine how different the Brewers club would look right now without that July 30th 2015 trade with the Astros that landed the Brewers Adrian Houser and Josh Hader.
imagine what the astros would look like without that deal
It would be nice to lock up all 3 of those guys. Where are you going to come up with the money to cover half of the other positions on the team.
Dude is going to shatter the previous record contract given to a RP
You’re nuts if you think otherwise. I don’t even think a RP has broken the $100 million barrier yet. This guy is going to land a deal in the $200 million area
Lebron hates idiots like you
Awwww sorry I offended you cupcake
Well if the Brewers were the Ray’s or A’s they would have Burnes on the trade block right now to sell high on him. And really with any pitcher you can in some way justify selling on them with of the volatile nature of the position has become with the all the arm injuries and sometimes pitchers just falling off or getting the yips. But the Brewers need to try for the extension but if he wants Gerrit Cole money then you better trade him and load up the farm.
If he continues his ace level output, he’s gone in a few years.
Burnes had his bout with the yips in 2019. If he got through that, I don’t see another issue in his future. And I think its a bit premature to put him on the trade block with all the arb years left.
Depends on what you can get the Ray’s had plenty of arb years on Blake Snell and we have seen guys get traded with 2 or 3 arb years left before.
This is his first arb year, and the Brewers expect to contend for at least the next couple, assuming he, Woody and Peralta can continue to pitch like they did in 21, and they can get some improvement offensively (Yelich coming close to his ’18 and ’19 form would be a big start). They didn’t jump to trade Hader when basically everyone said they should/would, so why is the Burnes situation different?
If the Brewers could move Cains contract and with Wong coming off the books next year. You can put Turang to second and Mitchell in center next year. They should concentrate on trying to extend Adames, Narvaez, Houser, Williams, Lauer, Urias, Taylor and maybe Tellez. Use Felliciano as your back up catcher. Then next off season see if you can lock up Hader, Burnes, or Woodruff. Hopefully 2 out of these three. Only use File, Bettinger, or Ray in trades as far as major league ready prospects in trades. Use prospects lower in minor league development in trades. I believe that some of these NRI could possibly help us like Westbrook, Dahl, Barnes, Perdoma( Tommy John surgery), Singleton could be real fines. Time will tell. I know people want to make big trades but. I believe this way could still keep us in WS hunt for years to come. I hope we’re able to retain Strickland. Hopefully they can bring a couple more minor league players in during lockout like Brinson, Brault, or some relief arms in. Maybe see what a Cooper. Anderson( Marlins), Davis or Dominic Smith might cost in trades. Not really high on the one year rental guys that are available. Think teams are going to be asking too much in return. I saw that people didn’t think Small, Turang, Weimer and Mitchell wasn’t enough for Olson!!! That in my opinion is ridiculous!!!!!
Maybe in another 3 years Turang will (finally) be the stud you feel he is now. I won’t hold my breath.
Hope they stay patient . I like the trades we have made in the past but this time I think we would be served better keeping some of our top young talent. Heck let’s bring back Jimmy Nelson on a minor league contract
Extend Burnes & Woodruff, sign Kris Bryant & a reliever, trade Hader for a AAA team.
I’d go all in right now with a deal that more than sets Burnes for life but doesn’t break the bank for anybody who’d be paying the contract, making it very trade-able whether he turns out to be less than the Cy Young pitcher he currently is, but not worthless for a starting pitcher.
3 years/$26M guaranteed, with 4 club options that could make it 7 years/$112M total…. with MVP, Cy Young, etc. bonuses that could take it up to $133M over 7 years.
$2M signing bonus, $3M 2022, $9M 2023, $11M 2024, $1M buyout on $17M club option, $3M buyout on $20M club option, $4M buyout on $25M club option, $4M buyout on $25M club option.
extension won’t come with the brewers, Mark Attanasio is far too cheap for that to happen
Right, he didn’t overpay for Jeff suppan, Kyle Lohse, Matt Garza or, it appears, Christian Yelich, LoCain or kept Josh Hader when all the financial experts said “the Brewers can’t afford him, they HAVE to trade him now (each of the past 3 off-seasons)”
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