New Orleans Saints defensive end Cameron Jordan (94) celebrates with New Orleans Saints cornerback P.J. Williams (26) after sacking Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1) during the game at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, La. Monday, Dec. 27, 2021. (Staff photo by David Grunfeld, NOLA.com | The Times-Picayune | The New Orleans Advocate)
New Orleans Saints defensive end Cameron Jordan (94) celebrates with New Orleans Saints cornerback P.J. Williams (26) after sacking Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (1) during the game at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, La. Monday, Dec. 27, 2021. (Staff photo by David Grunfeld, NOLA.com | The Times-Picayune | The New Orleans Advocate)
The cone of uncertainty is wide for the 2022 New Orleans Saints, wider than it has been in years.
This feels like a team that could go 12-5 or 5-12. Neither would shock me.
Sean Payton and Drew Brees are gone. For only the second time in 16 years, the Saints will play a game on Sunday without one of them on the field or sideline.
In their place, Dennis Allen and Jameis Winston step into the spotlight. Both appear capable of wearing the crowns that accompany their positions. Both also are unproven, having fallen short in their first opportunities as head coach and franchise quarterback, respectively. Their shots at redemption await.
There's talent and experience throughout the roster. The coaching staff is proven and highly regarded in league circles.
But questions remain throughout the depth chart.
The offense is relying heavily on Winston and wide receiver Michael Thomas. Neither has played an official down of football in almost a year. Both are operating on surgically repaired joints that already have led to setbacks during training camp.
At left tackle, the Saints' plan to replace perennial Pro Bowler Terron Armstead has been derailed by a foot injury to first-round draft pick Trevor Penning. Journeyman James Hurst will start in his place.
The defense harbors fewer concerns. The unit has the potential to be the club's most dominant group since the famed Dome Patrol terrorized NFL offenses in the early 1990s. But for all its talent and promise, the unit will be led by three veterans who are on the wrong side of 30: Demario Davis, Cam Jordan and Tyrann Mathieu. And the secondary already has been hit by attrition in the form of an ankle injury to cornerback Paulson Adebo and the trade of popular trash-talker C.J. Gardner-Johnson.
There's a lot that could go wrong here.
But if everything goes right, the potential is auspicious.
Because of this uncertainty, predictions for the Saints vary wildly.
Longtime NFL columnist Peter King picked them to finish as the top seed in the NFC. Payton and former NFL receiver Keyshawn Johnson believe they will dethrone Tampa Bay as the division champs.
Local media representatives are equally bullish. All 27 reporters surveyed in my annual preseason poll predicted a winning season.
Others, including Las Vegas oddsmakers, are more cynical. They forecast a .500-type season. Some early power rankings have tabbed the Saints in the lower third of the NFL.
We’ll find out who is right come December.
Meantime, here’s one man’s game-by-game prediction of how the Saints will fare this season:
The regular-season opener arrives with a little added spice in the form of the Saints’ longtime rivals. Sean Payton owned the Falcons during his 16-year coaching tenure, going 21-9. I don’t expect much to change with Dennis Allen in charge. Allen gets his first official win as Saints head coach as the team ground-and-pounds the Falcons into oblivion in the second half. Pick: Saints 26, Falcons 13
The Saints catch the Bucs at the right time. Their offensive line is riddled with injuries, and they’re coming off a tough opener in Dallas. This matchup always has intriguing subplots. Marshon Lattimore vs. Mike Evans. Jameis Winston vs. his old team. So many storylines. So much hype. The Dome will be rocking for the home opener, and the Saints will send the fans home happy. Pick: Saints 20, Bucs 16
Danger time. Sandwiched between the big home opener against the Bucs and the highly anticipated trip to London in Week 4, this game has "trap" written all over it. The Saints had an ugly Week 2 letdown last year against the Panthers in Charlotte after routing the Packers in Week 1. You can bet Allen will remind his players of that outcome this time around. Pick: Saints 24, Panthers 20
(8:30 a.m., NFL Network, London)
The Saints never have lost in London, having won both of their International Series games there and a preseason game in 1990. But I’ve got a sneaky suspicion all of the early season travel is going to catch up to the Saints at some point. By the time they kick off the game against the Vikings, they’ll have spent nine consecutive days away from home. Big days by Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson allow the Vikings to hand the road-weary Saints their first loss of the season. Pick: Vikings 30, Saints 20
The Seahawks are in full-scale rebuilding mode, the perfect opponent to get well against after suffering your first loss. Most of the familiar names — Russell Wilson, Bobby Wagner, Chris Carson — have moved on, leaving receiver DK Metcalf and coach Pete Carroll as the only real stars left. Geno Smith was named the starting quarterback, but don’t be surprised if Jimmy Garoppolo is Seattle’s starter by this time. Either way, the Saints will make easy work of the overmatched Seahawks. Pick: Saints 31, Seahawks 9
This figures to be one of the toughest tickets on the home schedule, and there should be plenty of purple and gold in the stands for this one. The Super Bowl runners-up are visiting New Orleans for just the second time in the last 16 years, and former LSU stars Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase will be playing in the Superdome for the first time since winning the 2019 national title for the Tigers. Pick: Bengals 26, Saints 24
The Saints won’t have much time to lick their wounds from the Bengals loss. They travel to Phoenix on short rest for a nationally televised Thursday night game against Kyler Murray and the Cardinals. Murray is one of the most polarizing players in the NFL. The Saints’ towering defensive line makes life miserable for the 5-foot-10 Murray, and the Saints get back on track in the desert. Pick: Saints 28, Cardinals 17
The Raiders are a trendy pick to win the AFC West under first-year coach Josh McDaniels. They have a talented roster, bolstered by the offseason additions of Davante Adams and Chandler Jones. The last time Derek Carr played in the Superdome, he stunned the Saints with a last-minute touchdown pass and 2-point conversion. It won’t be that close this time around. Pick: Saints 33, Raiders 20
Welcome to the "Marcus Williams revenge game." Lamar Jackson comes to town for the Saints’ first Monday Night Football appearance of the season. Running quarterbacks have given the Saints fits in recent years. Jackson puts on a show on the Superdome fast track and improves the Ravens’ all-time record in the venue to 3-0. Pick: Ravens 21, Saints 18
The Steelers will be rested for this one while coming off a bye week. By this time, rookie Kenny Pickett will almost surely have assumed the starting quarterback duties in Pittsburgh. But it won’t matter who’s at quarterback for the Steelers because their offensive line is awful and no match for the Saints in the trenches. The Saints improve to 7-3 behind a dominant defensive effort. Pick: Saints 14, Steelers 6
The reigning Super Bowl champs visit New Orleans for the first time since the infamous NOLA No-Call game. The Superdome crowd will be amped up for the high-profile matchup, and the Saints are particularly salty in these big home games. Wil Lutz’s 51-yard field goal in the final seconds is the difference in a defensive slugfest. Pick: Saints 17, Rams 16
If you had your druthers, you’d want to play the 49ers early in the season while Trey Lance is still trying to figure things out. By this point in the schedule, he should have found his bearings. The 49ers are catching the Saints in a good spot, on the heels of an emotional home game against the Rams and at the end of a brutal four-game stretch against four of the most physical defenses in the league. It all catches up to the Saints at Levi’s Stadium. Pick: 49ers 25, Saints 17
The NFL schedule-makers gave this game the prime Monday Night Football stage for a reason. The biannual matchup between division rivals has become must-see TV, and NFC South supremacy figures to be on the line. The Saints faced similar circumstances the past two seasons when they visited Tampa and battered the Bucs both times. I can’t see that happening a third time. Tom Brady and the Bucs are too good. Pick: Bucs 23, Saints 21
The Saints should be refreshed after the bye week and properly motivated to end their first two-game losing skid of the season. And no one better to take out frustrations on than the rebuilding Falcons, who — by this time — should be out of the playoff race and playing out the string. Pick: Saints 34, Falcons 13
This will be just the eighth time ever that the Saints have played in Cleveland, and traditionally their matchups with the Browns have been low-scoring affairs. The good news is the Saints, with their dominant defense and elite kicking game, are built to win these kind of late-December, cold-weather games. Pick: Saints 16, Browns 14
If things go according to plan, this matchup could have NFC playoff seeding implications. This will be the fifth consecutive year that the Saints and Eagles have met during the regular season. The Eagles have won the last three meetings between the teams at Lincoln Financial Field, and for whatever reason, their ground-based offense has bedeviled the Saints. Eagles make it four straight over the Saints at the Linc. Pick: Eagles 28, Saints 24
For the fourth time in the past five seasons, the Saints close out the regular season against the Panthers. The good news is they get to play this one in the Superdome, where they have owned the Panthers over the years. The Saints’ only loss in the past seven games against Carolina in New Orleans was in 2018, when they took the game off to rest their regulars in the season finale. The Saints will have plenty of incentive to win this time around, and they clinch the 10th division title in franchise history with the hard-fought victory. Pick: Saints 27, Panthers 13
Email Jeff Duncan at JDuncan@theadvocate.com or follow him on Twitter at @JeffDuncan_
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